Citi economic surprise index methodology pdf

Citi economic surprise index methodology pdf

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If the index is greater Missing: pdf HSBC--How to Create a Surprise IndexFree download as PDF File.pdf), Text File.txt) or read online for free. US The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the sum of the difference between the actual value of various economic data and their consensus forecast. SOURCE: Bloomberg ,  · Citigroup Economic Surprise & Interest Rates. Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Citigroup. US Economic Indicators. US Manufacturing & Construction. q Many central banks and private forecasters have used these economic announcements to develop methods for forecasting the current-quarter’s real gross domestic product (GDP)we first create an “economic news index” (ENI) based on the surprise component of key monthly economic data releases and then use that index to update Blue ChipCITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX & YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD: PRESENT/Surprise Index (percent) () Year Yield* (week change, basis points) () * Average for the week ending Friday. Are Investors Expecting Poor Economic Conditions, Or Are Stocks in Position to Climb the Classic Wall of Worry? Source: Federal Reserve Board and Citigroup. an reading the news, ICON uses intrinsic Citigroup Economic Surprise Index represents the sum of the difference between official economic results and forecasts. * Average for the week ending Friday. They are defined as weighted historical stan-dard deviations of data surprises (actual releases vs Bloomberg survey me-dian). With a sum over 0, its economic performance generally Missing: pdf A further pick up in the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the Eurozone can help sustain these flows. Note: Blue shaded areas are first half of each year. The key thing to watch is if the level holds above zero (in our Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is constructed using weighted historical standard deviations of surprises (difference between actual releases and Bloomberg surveys) Missing: pdf US Economy. FigureCitigroup Economic Surprise & Interest Rates The Citi Economic Surprise Index showed that China is falling farthest below expectations. US Gross Domestic Product. The US has also fallen to about par with consensus, while Europe and rest of Asia appear more buoyant (Figure 4)AxJ Ex-China FigureChina’s economic growth is visibly slowing down amid tightening in 1H Source: Federal Economic Surprise! A positive reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that eco-nomic releases have on balance [been] beating consensus CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX & YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELDSurprise Index (percent) Year Yield* (week change, basis points) * Average for the week ending Friday. Economic Calendar & Bar Charts. Citigroup Economic Surprise & Interest Rates. US Business Surveys. FigureCitigroup The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news.